Here is the PAGASA update as of 2 p.m. today, November 11.
• Destructive winds and intense with at times torrential rainfall associated with the region of the eyewall and inner rainbands of the typhoon will be experienced over the northern portions of Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, and Camarines Norte until tonight and over Aurora and northern portion of Quezon tonight through tomorrow early morning.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Strong winds: Throughout the passage of the typhoon, destructive typhoon-force winds will be experiencing in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #3, damaging gale- to storm-force winds in areas under TCWS #2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under TCWS #1. In other areas, the rest of Northern Luzon will be experiencing strong breeze to gale-force winds due to the surge of the Northeast Monsoon.
• Heavy rainfall:Until tonight, heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Albay, Sorsogon, Quezon including Polillo Islands, and Burias and Ticao Islands. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon and Visayas. Between tonight and tomorrow early morning, heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Aurora, Bulacan, Pampanga, and Bataan. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Cordillera Administrative Region, mainland Cagayan Valley, Catanduanes, Marinduque, the northern portion of Mindoro Provinces, and the rest of Central Luzon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over the rest of Luzon and Visayas. Flooding (including flashfloods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and/or those that received significant antecedent rainfall. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
• Storm surge: There is a high risk of storm surge with heights of up to 3.0 m over the coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, and the northern and eastern coastal areas of Camarines Sur, and up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of La Union, Pangasinan, Isabela, Zambales, Aurora, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, northern portions of Mindoro Provinces including Lubang Island, Marinduque, Romblon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Albay, and Sorsogon, and the remaining coastal areas of Camarines Sur. These storm surges, which may be accompanied by swells and/or breaking waves near the coast, can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation. Moreover, there is also a moderate risk of seiche or storm surge over the coastal areas surrounding Laguna de Bay.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• Within the next 24 hours, rough to very high seas (2.5 to 10.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS and the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar currently not under TCWS #1. The surge of the Northeast Monsoon will also bring rough to high seas (3.0 to 6.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and rough seas (2.5 to 3.5 m) over the seaboards of Kalayaan Islands. Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the western seaboards of Palawan including Calamian Islands, and the eastern seaboards of Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: On the forecast track, “ULYSSES” will move generally westward throughout the forecast period and pass over the seas north of Camarines Provinces between this afternoon and evening. The center of “ULYSSES” is forecast to make landfall over Polillo Islands and mainland Quezon between tonight and tomorrow early morning. Afterwards, “ULYSSES” will cross Central Luzon and emerge over the western seaboard of Zambales tomorrow morning.
• Intensity: “ULYSSES” may reach its peak intensity of 130-155 km/h prior to landfall. “ULYSSES” may slightly weaken as it crosses mainland Luzon due to frictional effects in the presence of the Sierra Madre and Zambales Mountain Ranges. However, it is likely to remain a typhoon throughout its traverse.
Location of Eye/center
At 1:00 pm today, the center of the eye of Typhoon “ULYSSES” was located based on all available data at 125 km North Northwest of Virac, Catanduanes or 95 km Northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte (14.6 °N, 123.7 °E )
Movement
Moving Westward at 20 km/h
Strength
Maximum sustained winds of 135 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 165 km/h
Forecast Position
• 24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 60 km West of Iba, Zambales(15.3°N, 119.4°E)
• 48 Hour(Friday morning):535 km West of Iba, Zambales( 15.3°N, 115.0°E)
• 72 Hour(Saturday morning): 975 km West of Central Luzon( 15.4°N, 110.9°E)