The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Monday, Jan. 6, issued an advisory on the ongoing La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific, which are expected to influence weather patterns across the country in the coming months.
PAGASA Chief Dr. Nathaniel Servando said periods of cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that began in September 2024 have continued to persist and further strengthened, reaching the La Niña condition thresholds by December 2024.
La Niña conditions exist when a one-month sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) of -0.5°C or less is observed, with an expectation that the three-month SSTA (Oceanic Niño Index) will also meet the same threshold of -0.5°C or less through the January-February-March (JFM) season, he said.
Several climate models suggest that these La Niña conditions are likely to continue at least until the JFM 2025 season, Servando said.
This development is associated with a higher likelihood of above-normal rainfall during the upcoming months. PAGASA warned that this increase in precipitation could lead to floods, flash floods, and rain-induced landslides, particularly in areas prone to such events.
The PAGASA advisory highlights an increased chance of tropical cyclone activity within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during this period.
In light of these forecasts, PAGASA urges the public and all concerned agencies to remain vigilant and monitor updates from the agency regularly.
Preparedness measures are crucial as the nation anticipates potential weather-related challenges, PAGASA said.*