The Department of Health downgraded Bacolod City’s COVID-19 risk classification from high to moderate on Monday, June 21, but the Corazon Locsin Montelibano Memorial Regional Hospital (CLMMRH) forecasts that cases in the city will further increase towards the end of the month.
Negros Occidental’s classification remained at low risk, Dr. Marie Jocelyn Te, DOH 6 medical officer IV, also said in an online press briefing.
The average daily COVID-19 attack rate of Bacolod City was 18.03 percent from May 24 to June 6 and 17.43 percent from June 7 to 20, she said.
The average daily COVID-19 attack rate of Negros Occidental was 4.21 percent from May 24 to June 6 and 3.73 percent from June 7 to 20, she added.
Bacolod City had 84 new COVID-19 cases for a total of 2,208 active cases on Monday, the DOH also reported.
Negros Occidental had 123 new cases for a total of 2,500 COVID-19 active cases, the DOH added.
The DOH also downgraded Western Visayas’ classification from a high risk area for COVID-19 to low risk on Monday.
Classified as high risk areas are Aklan and Guimaras, moderate risk – Antique and Iloilo City, and low risk – Capiz and Iloilo province.
The DOH report said the number of COVID-19 cases in Western Visayas continues to increase, but generally the health care utilization rate is still at moderate.
The positivity rate also continued to increase from 7.3 percent to 8 percent from June 13 to 20 that may indicate increased transmission of COVID-19, it added.
Meanwhile, the CLMMRH-Hospital Emergency Incident Command System Data Analytics forecasts that the COVID-19 cases for Bacolod City will be at 130-160 cases a day towards the end of June.
Its previous forecast was 90 to 100 cases.
The forecast is based on actual data to simulate the possible scenario in order that CLMMRH will be aware and be prepared for a further surge of cases. The analysis enables the hospital management to strategically allocate its resources and manpower to areas that will need utmost attention, a CLMMRH statement posted on its Facebook page Monday said.
The CLMMRH statement said with an increasing Reproduction Number (Rt) as of June 13 in Bacolod, it reveals that there is an impending concern that the cases will continue to increase in the next few days unless drastic measures and stern actions are be applied.
“As your sole DOH-retained hospital in Negros, it is our responsibility to inform you of the figures to increase awareness and to encourage people to practice safety protocols during this pandemic,” the CLMMRH statement said.*