The Office of Civil Defense (OCD) may further expand the extended danger zone around Mt. Kanlaon from six kilometers to 10 kilometers if weather conditions worsen.
An expansion would mean thousands more would have to evacuate amid concerns raised by local officials on the mounting cost of caring for the current evacuees.
“We are keeping a close watch on the PAGASA weather reports that would be the trigger for a massive evacuation,” OCD Western Visayas Director and Task Force Kanlaon chairperson Raul Fernandez said on Thursday, Dec. 19.
He said they were in the consultative phase with the relevant agencies and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) has not recommended the expansion of the danger zone yet.
But preparatory works for an expanded evacuation is underway to ensure that we are ready for the worst case scenario, he said.
It is just advance planning so if a mass evacuation from the 10 kilometer danger zone is needed, it can immediately be executed, Fernandez said.
If an eruption happens during a storm there could be a lot of casualties if they are not prepared, he said.
“We want to avoid having casualties in Negros,” he said.
Without Phivolcs raising Kanlaon’s alert level from 3 (high level of volcanic unrest) to 4 (hazardous eruption imminent) it will be difficult to justify the need to evacuate more residents living within an expanded 10-kilometer danger zone, La Carlota Mayor Rex Jalandoon said.
If evacuation from the 10 kilometer radius is ordered it would mean evacuating 10,000 to 15,000 more residents from five La Carlota barangays, he said.
There are 6,282 evacuees in La Castellana, 470 in Bago City and 1,566 in La Carlota City for a total of 8,318, the Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council reported on Thursday.
Jalandoon said the La Carlota City government is spending P50,000 to P70,000 a day for the needs of the current evacuees, he said.
He said if Alert Level 4 is raised and lives are in danger the city government will have no choice but to evacuate residents, but in the absence of that it will be difficult to convince people to leave their homes.
Mari Andylene Quintia, resident volcanologist at the Kanlaon Volcano Observatory in La Carlota City, said Phivolcs has recommended a 6-kilometer radius evacuation and has not expanded it to 10.
However, they have warned that prolonged and heavy rainfall may generate post-eruption lahars from remnant pyroclastic density current (PDC) deposits from Kanlaon’s Dec. 9 explosion, she said.
Potential lahars and sediment-laden streamflows may occur along the Tamburong Creek in Biak-na-bato and Baji-Baji Falls and Talaptapan Creek, in Cabacungan, La Castellana, she reiterated.
Mud streams were seen in the Cabacungan and Biak-na-Bato, La Castellana, waterways after moderate rainfall on Thursday, the OCD reported.
Fernandez said a low-pressure area (LPA) off Mindanao poses a risk of lahar flow in Negros Island.
“Based on the assessment of Phivolcs, there’s still a huge possibility of an explosive eruption anytime. This is based on the volcanic activity that is ongoing, including volcanic earthquakes,” Fernandez also said.
He said an explosion happening together with a typhoon would be dangerous, as it would trigger heavy lahar flow.
SAFE CHRISTMAS
Undersecretary Ariel Nepomuceno, Civil Defense Administrator, on Thursday called for a safe Christmas for the Kanlaon Volcano evacuees.
He urged the evacuees to stay in the evacuation centers and not to return to their homes.
“Remember, life is more important – possessions are replaceable, but life is not,” he said.
If there is a Kanlaon Volcano eruption ”there will be no rescue for those inside the permanent danger zone. That’s why your cooperation is important”, he said.
Nepomuceno assured the evacuees that government agencies will be on hand to meet their needs while they are in the evacuation centers.
“Let’s make sure that together we celebrate Christmas away from the danger of the volcano,” he added.*